April '24 Stock Pick

A solid margin of safety with asymmetric upside returns. Heads I win big, tails I don't lose much. I'm putting some chips in.

I am keeping this pick simple. Not in the sense that I think it is a layup but rather a simple-to-understand thesis which, the way it’s priced right now, has asymmetric upside and a good margin of safety.

It also trades for a <6x EBITDA/EV using a 3-YR earnings average.

Given the risk-to-reward ratio this is going to be a smaller bet with an optionality to add more in the future.

Here is how the prior picks have been so far.

As always these picks have only had a few months to work since the start so take the returns with a grain of salt. I won’t be resulting any of these until a few years pass.

You should view each pick for what it is, a monthly pick, some will grow into winners and some will fall by the wayside but if the ideas are good over time, the winners will pay for the losers.

Here is my pick for April.

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